599 Durham Rd

Guilford Center, CT 06437

$539,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,718 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax + insurance: −$841
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-508/mo
• Annual: $-6,094/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $150,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $539k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-508 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $449k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (25.8% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($507k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $400k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in CT, #1,186 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Guilford School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #19 of 153 in CT (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Guilford High School (math 60% / reading 84%, grade B+, #14 of 194 statewide, top 8%, 1,048 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Guilford Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.