4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,383 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 271 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,283/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,146
Tax + insurance
−$536
HOA
−$40
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$479
Net cashflow
$-1,919/mo
Annual
$-23,025/yr
Cap rate
2.46%
Cash-on-cash
-13.71%
DSCR
0.39
1% rule
0.38%
Cash to close
$168,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $600k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (56.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (62.0% below list).
It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $228k (62.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Lexington ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #184 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lexington El (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 498 students, 44% FRL); Lexington Middle (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 242 students, 44% FRL); Lexington H S (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 344 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 23900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29