4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,000 sqft ·
Built 1932
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 7 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$16,556/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$8,123
Tax + insurance
−$2,582
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,477
Net cashflow
$2,374/mo
Annual
$28,493/yr
Cap rate
8.13%
Cash-on-cash
6.57%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$433,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $1.55M. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $1.55M).
Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $46k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#397 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
Manasquan School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #129 of 472 in NJ (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $16,556/mo this rent would consume 114% of the median local household income ($174k/yr) (locally 65% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5JK5KCC4W682A5
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29