2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,910 sqft ·
Built 1989
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 292 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,645/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$931
Tax + insurance
−$389
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$345
Net cashflow
$-20/mo
Annual
$-244/yr
Cap rate
6.16%
Cash-on-cash
-0.49%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$49,700
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-244/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (2.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (7.3% below list).
It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $156k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#272 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Iowa Park CISD (town): math 57% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #129 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bradford El (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 447 students, 46% FRL).
Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5K06JM800VW1CV
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29