4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,339 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 205 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,621/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$469
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$340
Net cashflow
$78/mo
Annual
$940/yr
Cap rate
6.96%
Cash-on-cash
2.40%
DSCR
1.11
1% rule
1.16%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($940/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#215 in NY, #3,348 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
Cheektowaga-Sloan Union Free School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #555 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $140k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.7% in Sloan — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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