2713 B 1/2 Rd #124

Grand Junction, CO 81503

$45,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$670
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $110/mo
• Annual: $1,320/yr
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 3.07%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,222 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dos Rios Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #475 of 966 statewide, top 51%, 287 students, 78% FRL); Orchard Mesa Middle School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #218 of 270 statewide, top 81%, 465 students, 57% FRL); Grand Junction High School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #188 of 381 statewide, top 49%, 1,522 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 39% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.1% in Grand Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.