4803 Tanglewood Oaks St

Raleigh, NC 27610

$220,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 2000 · Townhouse · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$90
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-327/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-327/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hodge Road Elementary (math 17% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,153 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 520 students, 70% FRL); Neuse River Middle (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #396 of 475 statewide, top 84%, 908 students, 77% FRL); Knightdale High (math 15% / reading 50%, grade F, #441 of 535 statewide, top 83%, 1,702 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 30% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-29 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 594 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?