23 Lawrence Dr Unit A

Valhalla, NY 10603

$170,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1960 · Condo · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,107/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $423/mo
• Annual: $5,082/yr
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.35%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#795 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Valhalla Union Free School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #119 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Road Elementary School (317 students, 16% FRL); Valhalla Middle School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 301 students, 24% FRL); Valhalla High School (math 98% / reading 70%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 429 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 8193% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $125k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.8% in Valhalla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.