421 N Huey Ave W

Mount Calm, TX 76673

$160,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Built 1911 · SingleFamily · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-260/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-260/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,170 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mount Calm ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #892 of 1,141 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.