848 Salem Trl

Lewisville, TX 75067

$200,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,135/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $203/mo
• Annual: $2,439/yr
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#440 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeland El (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 620 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 26% district-wide (63 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-31 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lewisville ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 223 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $200k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Lewisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.