21181 Highway 49

Chase City, VA 23968

$235,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,121 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,581/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,453/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (32.7% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $158k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#238 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chase City Elementary (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 387 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mecklenburg County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $235k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 7.5% in Chase City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.