1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
538 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Condo
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$879/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$304
Tax + insurance
−$81
HOA
−$270
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$184
Net cashflow
$39/mo
Annual
$471/yr
Cap rate
7.10%
Cash-on-cash
2.90%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
1.51%
Cash to close
$16,240
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $58k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($471/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($879 rent vs $58k).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Semple Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #662 of 676 statewide, top 99%, 574 students, 79% FRL); Frederick Law Olmsted Academy North (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #217 of 217 statewide, top 100%, 510 students, 74% FRL); Iroquois High (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #245 of 254 statewide, top 97%, 1,090 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 9% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5Q4P5A5YEHS1AT
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29