1116 Esperanza St

Rancho Chico, TX 78387

$39,999B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 598 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $918/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $61/mo
• Annual: $734/yr
• Cap rate: 20.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.26%
• DSCR: 3.33
• 1% rule: 2.29%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($734/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($918 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,179 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sinton ISD (town): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #601 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.