614 S Pecan St

Henrietta, TX 76365

$92,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,065/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $47/mo
• Annual: $568/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $25,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($568/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#379 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrietta ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #219 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henrietta El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 481 students, 53% FRL); Henrietta Middle (math 50% / reading 43%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 226 students, 48% FRL); Henrietta H S (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 287 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in Henrietta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.