4628 Ashberry Dr

Desoto Acres, FL 34234

$275,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 954 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $184/mo
• Annual: $2,204/yr
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $275k implies a 334% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Desoto Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,317/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1306% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.