3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,814 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 63 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,483/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,573
Tax + insurance
−$393
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$521
Net cashflow
$-4/mo
Annual
$-49/yr
Cap rate
6.28%
Cash-on-cash
-0.06%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$83,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-49/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (0.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.2% below list).
It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $248k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
8 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $101k; list at $300k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
At $2,483/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 2251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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