220 Shawmut Ave

Central Falls, RI 02863

$389,900F

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$527
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-777/mo
• Annual: $-9,319/yr
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.54%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $109,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-777 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (41.7% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $227k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#21 in RI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Central Falls (suburban): math 2% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #38 of 39 in RI (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ella Risk School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #158 of 167 statewide, top 97%, 430 students, 94% FRL); Calcutt Middle School (math 0% / reading 6%, grade F, #56 of 57 statewide, top 98%, 511 students, 97% FRL); Central Falls Sr High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #53 of 58 statewide, top 96%, 811 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 78% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 5.1% in Central Falls — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,272/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1380% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.