456 29th St

Ashland, KY 41101

$74,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · Built 1925 · Other · Active · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,167/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $477/mo
• Annual: $5,727/yr
• Cap rate: 13.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.31%
• DSCR: 2.21
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#304 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashland Independent (urban): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #49 of 165 in KY (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $75k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 5.4% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.