346 Payne St

Georgetown, KY 40324

$170,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,342/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-45/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-45/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (21.0% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in KY, #2,338 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Scott County (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anne Mason Elementary School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #523 of 676 statewide, top 77%, 409 students, 42% FRL); Royal Spring Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #40 of 217 statewide, top 19%, 726 students, 44% FRL); Scott County High School (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #73 of 254 statewide, top 28%, 1,197 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 546 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.