Churchill (Grandin) Plan

Evansville, IN 47720

$85,995D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 326 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,289/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$475
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-51/mo
• Annual: $-608/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $24,079

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-608/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (8.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#416 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 301 in IN (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elementary School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade C, #197 of 994 statewide, top 22%, 839 students, 49% FRL); Thompkins Middle School (math 39% / reading 46%, grade D-, #98 of 330 statewide, top 30%, 618 students, 53% FRL); Central High School (math 38% / reading 74%, grade C, #73 of 369 statewide, top 20%, 1,090 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 508 units permitted in Vanderburgh County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.6% in Evansville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?