4 Sanders Cir

Sugarmill Woods, FL 34446

$321,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,689
• Tax + insurance: −$537
• HOA: −$11
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-483/mo
• Annual: $-5,790/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.42%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $90,157

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $322k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (31.1% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $322k implies a 973% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,220/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 121% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.