3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
2,656 sqft ·
Built 1917
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 113 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,409/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$776
Tax + insurance
−$395
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$296
Net cashflow
$-58/mo
Annual
$-699/yr
Cap rate
5.82%
Cash-on-cash
-1.69%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$41,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-699/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (7.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (4.8% below list).
It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $135k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#584 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Cambridge CUSD 227 (rural): math 28% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #215 of 620 in IL (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Cambridge Comm Grade School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #267 of 2,056 statewide, top 15%, 234 students, 0% FRL); Cambridge Jr/Sr High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 227 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 26% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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