225 W Thornridge Ln

Mount Morris, MI 48458

$12,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,008/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax + insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$650
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $64/mo
• Annual: $763/yr
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.70%
• DSCR: 2.01
• 1% rule: 8.40%
• Cash to close: $3,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $12k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($763/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $11k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $83 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $360 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mt. Morris Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #511 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mt Morris Middle School (math 6% / reading 20%, grade F, #465 of 493 statewide, top 94%, 340 students, 84% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 64% of rent.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 5.7% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.