3 Bluebill Ave #206

Naples Park, FL 34108

$369,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 810 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 160 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$763
• HOA: −$930
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$880
• Net cashflow: $-316/mo
• Annual: $-3,796/yr
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.28%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $103,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (15.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $369k).
• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $313k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#696 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $318k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.