13509 Park Blvd

Seminole, FL 33776

$1,255,000F

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,580 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 237 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,581
• Tax + insurance: −$1,969
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,121
• Net cashflow: $-573/mo
• Annual: $-6,875/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $351,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-573 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.15M (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.01M (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.10M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.01M (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bauder Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 28% FRL); Seminole High School (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,546 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $978k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.