83 Matthew Ln

Brewton, AL 36426

$99,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $575/mo
• Annual: $6,897/yr
• Cap rate: 13.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.88%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#185 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia County (town): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #83 of 129 in AL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W S Neal Elementary School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 542 students, 72% FRL); W S Neal Middle School (math 10% / reading 45%, grade F, #144 of 257 statewide, top 57%, 416 students, 76% FRL); W S Neal High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #195 of 305 statewide, top 68%, 358 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 4.7% in Brewton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.