43555 Hwy 41 #54

Oakhurst, CA 93644

$185,000C-

3 bd · 1.75 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 1005 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,936/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $251/mo
• Annual: $3,008/yr
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.75-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 1005 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.5% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 1005 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.