2129 Werth Rd

Alpena, MI 49707

$80,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 634 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $740/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$155
• Net cashflow: $117/mo
• Annual: $1,403/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.26%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $74k (7.5% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#359 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Alpena Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #345 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpena High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 1,101 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alpena Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Alpena County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alpena County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $80k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Alpena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.