3717 NW County Road 0016

Corsicana, TX 75110

$224,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,786/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-209/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-209/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#283 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Corsicana ISD (town): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #471 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fannin El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 399 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 65% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Corsicana ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Corsicana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.