54 Autumn Hills Rd

Greenbrier, AR 72058

$190,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $133/mo
• Annual: $1,599/yr
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#44 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenbrier School District (town): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #2 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrier Eastside Elementary (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #24 of 454 statewide, top 6%, 479 students, 50% FRL); Greenbrier Middle School (math 67% / reading 64%, grade A-, #3 of 201 statewide, top 1%, 599 students, 38% FRL); Greenbrier High School (math 46% / reading 59%, grade C-, #10 of 292 statewide, top 3%, 817 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $190k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Greenbrier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.