112 Kellen Way

Bodfish, CA 93205

$77,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 732 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $681/mo
• Annual: $8,177/yr
• Cap rate: 16.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.93%
• DSCR: 2.69
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $21,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($532 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,207 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodrow W. Wallace Elementary (418 students, 86% FRL); Woodrow Wallace Middle (273 students, 81% FRL); Kern Valley High (reading 75%, 466 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 5.9% in Bodfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: landscaping — Sparse vegetation and dry ground