44 SHERMAN Ave Unit 1C

Jersey City, NJ 07307-2264

$299,999D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 618 sqft · Built — · Condo · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,383/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$720
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-911/mo
• Annual: $-10,932/yr
• Cap rate: 2.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.01%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-911 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (43.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in NJ, #2,955 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Jersey City Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 472 in NJ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Trefurt School (math 9% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 648 students, 47% FRL); Franklin L. Williams School (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #370 of 431 statewide, top 86%, 854 students, 61% FRL); William L Dickinson High School (math 11% / reading 35%, grade F, #337 of 399 statewide, top 85%, 2,024 students, 59% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 2.1% in Jersey City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?