1825 Welland Dr

Largo, FL 33756

$430,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,247 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,788/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$796
• Net cashflow: $134/mo
• Annual: $1,608/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ponce De Leon Elementary School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 568 students, 79% FRL); Largo Middle School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 882 students, 66% FRL); Largo High School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 2,055 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 366 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $312k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,788/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1868% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.