1020 J St

Hoquiam, WA 98550

$485,000F

84 bd · 49.0 ba · 6,971 sqft · Built 1929 · Other · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,309/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$918
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-1,638/mo
• Annual: $-19,656/yr
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.71%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 84-bed/49.0-bath other listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (59.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (52.4% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $196k (59.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#171 in WA, #4,268 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Hoquiam School District (town): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #250 of 291 in WA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Emerson Elementary (269 students, 82% FRL); Hoquiam Middle School (370 students, 74% FRL); Hoquiam High School (450 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 58% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $279k; list at $485k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,309/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 438% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.