3319 Overcup Oak Ter

Sarasota, FL 34237

$219,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · Built 2008 · Manufactured · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$210
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-696/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-696/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $219k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?