4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
932 sqft ·
Built 1925
· Townhouse
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,776/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$666
Tax + insurance
−$170
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$373
Net cashflow
$567/mo
Annual
$6,805/yr
Cap rate
11.65%
Cash-on-cash
19.14%
DSCR
1.85
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$35,560
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $127k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $125k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $157 of equity ($878 loan paydown + $-721 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
15 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $85k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-605HCZ4C6PBE9X
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29