2166 E Arkansas Ln

Arlington, TX 76014

$184,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,667/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-512/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-512/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (9.8% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.