3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,216 sqft ·
Built 1998
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 124 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,582/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$357
Tax + insurance
−$113
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$780/mo
Annual
$9,361/yr
Cap rate
20.06%
Cash-on-cash
49.17%
DSCR
3.19
1% rule
2.33%
Cash to close
$19,040
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#44 in MN, #1,223 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F.
Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pike Lake Kindergarten Center (595 students, 54% FRL); Edgewood Middle School (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D+, #106 of 258 statewide, top 43%, 699 students, 54% FRL); Irondale Senior High (math 47% / reading 66%, grade C, #77 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 1,706 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 24% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 3.2% in Mounds View — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Weathered and snow-covered
Minor: roof
— Newer roof
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· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29