15227 Horseshoe Bridge Rd

Ashland, VA 23047

$210,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-282/mo
• Annual: $-3,381/yr
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (37.9% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#67 in VA, #2,152 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Henry Clay Elementary (361 students, 60% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 66% / reading 74%, grade A, #80 of 342 statewide, top 24%, 911 students, 39% FRL); Patrick Henry High (math 74% / reading 81%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,323 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 15% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.4% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?