21 Songbird Rd

Pleasant Plains, AR 72568

$158,900D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$833
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-870/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $44,492

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-870/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#259 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Midland School District (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #191 of 238 in AR (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Midland Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #347 of 454 statewide, top 79%, 277 students, 68% FRL); Midland High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #187 of 292 statewide, top 70%, 234 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Independence County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.