1402 Gooseneck Ln

Cave Springs, AR 72718

$519,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,252 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,224/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax + insurance: −$427
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-635/mo
• Annual: $-7,614/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $145,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-635 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $407k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (37.9% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($511k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $322k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#41 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Janie Darr Elementary School (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #5 of 454 statewide, top 1%, 417 students, 11% FRL); Elmwood Middle School (math 49% / reading 56%, grade C+, #27 of 201 statewide, top 14%, 1,007 students, 42% FRL); Rogers High School (math 30% / reading 48%, grade F, #58 of 292 statewide, top 20%, 2,284 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $519k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.