818 Flores

Devine, TX 78016

$30,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $810/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $399/mo
• Annual: $4,785/yr
• Cap rate: 22.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.97%
• DSCR: 3.53
• 1% rule: 2.70%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($810 rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#954 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Devine ISD (town): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #420 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Devine Intermediate School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 432 students, 61% FRL); Devine H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 577 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 2.2% in Devine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.