2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 2007
· Townhouse
· Active
· 274 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,775/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$886
Tax + insurance
−$282
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$373
Net cashflow
$234/mo
Annual
$2,810/yr
Cap rate
7.96%
Cash-on-cash
5.94%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$47,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $169k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#3 in AR, #871 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
Fayetteville School District (urban): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Owl Creek School (math 36% / reading 28%, grade F, #278 of 454 statewide, top 64%, 1,024 students, 62% FRL); Ramay Junior High School (math 39% / reading 39%, grade F, #102 of 201 statewide, top 52%, 645 students, 54% FRL); Fayetteville High School East (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #24 of 292 statewide, top 9%, 2,685 students, 27% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 666 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $67k; list at $169k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.6% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-61PNHAEV2BVX3R
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29