4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
3,186 sqft ·
Built 1941
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 139 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,391/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$954
Tax + insurance
−$266
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$292
Net cashflow
$-122/mo
Annual
$-1,460/yr
Cap rate
5.49%
Cash-on-cash
-2.87%
DSCR
0.87
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$50,960
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $182k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (11.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (23.6% below list).
It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $139k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#440 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
South Gibson School Corporation (rural): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #31 of 301 in IN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Owensville Community School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #325 of 994 statewide, top 36%, 415 students, 41% FRL); Gibson Southern High School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #18 of 369 statewide, top 5%, 726 students, 23% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Gibson County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Gibson County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $134k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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