37294 Lakeshore Ave

Prairieville, LA 70769

$425,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,579 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$489
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-426/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-426/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $419k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $342k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dutchtown Primary School (math 65% / reading 73%, grade A-, #32 of 646 statewide, top 5%, 603 students, 43% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B+, #10 of 218 statewide, top 5%, 657 students, 36% FRL); Dutchtown High School (math 70% / reading 68%, grade B, #9 of 265 statewide, top 3%, 2,643 students, 30% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ascension Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $258k; list at $425k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?