2822 Fir Park

Richland Hills, TX 76118

$185,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,018 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,624/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax + insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-726/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $52,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $186k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-726/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#410 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Birdville ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Richland Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.