3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,635 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 46 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,426/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,390
Tax + insurance
−$217
HOA
−$183
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$510
Net cashflow
$127/mo
Annual
$1,523/yr
Cap rate
6.87%
Cash-on-cash
2.05%
DSCR
1.09
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$74,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (8.4% below list).
It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $243k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-62KMK00PC71Q5N
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29