114 Elm Branch St

Zavalla, TX 75949

$79,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $344/mo
• Annual: $4,131/yr
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,345 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Huntington ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huntington El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 482 students, 67% FRL); Huntington Middle (math 51% / reading 38%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 371 students, 54% FRL); Huntington H S (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 499 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $79k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.1% in Zavalla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.