1017 Turner Spur Rd

Fancy Gap, VA 24328

$220,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,749/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,462/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.70%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#515 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gladesboro Elementary (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 106 students, 85% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Fancy Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?