4420 Co Rd 36

Gu-Win, AL 35594

$169,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-93/mo
• Annual: $-1,111/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (32.1% below list).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Winfield City (rural): math 36% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #15 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winfield Elementary School (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C+, #76 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 525 students, 54% FRL); Winfield Middle School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade D-, #48 of 257 statewide, top 19%, 381 students, 59% FRL); Winfield High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #16 of 305 statewide, top 5%, 349 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 39% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP.
• Fayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $169k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.